The Revolt Of The Elites

By Kleinheider Posted on April 21, 2008 at 7:19 am

David Sparks wonders in the Boston Globe whether the pragmatism of the superdelegates will lead them to conclude that the potential benefits of nominating Barack Obama are not worth the stretch:

Assume Hillary Clinton will be viewed as a northern state liberal: a combination of John Kerry and Al Gore. The states-won distribution between Gore and Kerry was identical except for New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Iowa. If Clinton starts the race as the Kerry/Gore prototype in the battleground states, she will probably run a very close election with McCain, just like Bush-Gore and Bush-Kerry. The problem for her is that both Gore and Kerry lost. The question is: Which states can she flip and why?

Obama is harder to profile. The enthusiasm for his campaign, his appeal among younger voters, suburban independents, and African-Americans prompts some analysts to suggest that not only can’t he be categorized, but that his presence on the ballot against McCain will throw 40 states into play instead of the traditional handful. However, the split between Whites and African-Americans in choosing between Obama and Clinton has been stark, now fueled by Obama’s recent comments about small town America. The flipside of the Obama potential is the potential backlash against the first African-American nominee…

…In Clinton, the superdelegates have a candidate who fits their recent mold and the last two elections have been very close. This year is a bad year for Republicans. Just a slight shift from the Gore-Kerry level would give her the victory. In Obama they have a new model candidate and the potential for a coalition of voter groups and states which break from the Gore-Kerry model.

Superdelegates are the most practical individuals going to the Democratic Convention. Practical people don’t like to gamble much in their decision-making. The superdelegates have to ask themselves how much they want to roll the dice.

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Tags: Al Gore, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, risk versus reward