No Mas Demográficas Ventaja?

By Kleinheider Posted on April 22, 2008 at 12:21 pm

Bruce Barry surveys the lay of the land on the day of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary and makes some predictions:

The real prediction question, of course, is not just what happens tonight, but what happens tomorrow. How big a win tonight is a win? The problem for Clinton is that after Pennsylvania, there are no more Pennsylvanias, which is to say no more big delegate-rich states where she has the built-in demographic edge. The remaining contests—North Carolina and Indiana in two weeks, and then Kentucky, West Virginia, Oregon, South Dakota, Puerto Rico and let’s not forget Guam—are a mixed bag: Obama figures to take NC, OR, and SD; Clinton grabs WV, KY and PR; leaving IN as a tossup. After today, it’s hard to foresee a plausible significant aggregate effect on the spread of delegates or popular votes. Unless Clinton pulls out of nowhere a whopper of a win tonight in the 15-20 point range, giving superdelegates some seriously irritated bowels, what’s her path to the nomination? It may not be over tonight, but I’m thinking it’s over on May 6.

No built in demographic advantages past Pennsylvania for Hillary? What about Puerto Rico? Remember Nevada?

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Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Hispanics, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico  

Can John McCain Cobble Together A Coalition Of Nativists And Hispanics?

By Kleinheider Posted on April 18, 2008 at 7:22 am

Nashville immigration attorney, Greg Siskind reports that he’s gonna give it a shot.

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Tags: Hispanics, Immigration, John McCain, nativists, Presidential politics, restrictionism