‘Nooga Website Says Frist Not Running For Governor

By Kleinheider Posted on January 3, 2009 at 2:34 pm

I got some plans to go away after. So for me, it’s worth the stretch. But, Elaine takes good care of you. You got plenty put away. T-bonds; real estate. If I were you, I’d be smart and cut loose of this.

~ Neil McCauley in Heat (1995)

Chattanoogan.com reports that according to “high Republican sources” Bill Frist will not run for Governor in 2010.

This follows a blog post by Jeff Woods earlier in the week which revealed Frist’s lack of a “fire in the belly” for statewide politics and gave voice to a growing feeling among the political intelligentsia in the state that Frist would ultimately demur from a race that is his to win.

Given the source, Post Politics is not prepared to assert with certainty that a decision has been made but the report is certainly not inconsistent with the way things seem to be heading.

If the call has been made, Senator Frist has made a wise decision. With the economy in despair and the state budget suffering from a lack of revenue in a political climate where any kind of comprehensive tax reform is political suicide, the next Governor will have his hands full.

Let’s be frank, one of the chief reasons (and possibly the only reason) Bill Frist would want to make a run for Governor would be to set himself up for a run for President.

While the official reason Frist left the Senate in 2006 was that he was fulfilling a commitment to self-imposed term limits, most political observers understand that he left the Senate because he was going to mount a Presidential campaign.

Visits to Iowa and New Hampshire were made and an apparatus was constructed. Ultimately, Frist failed to pull the trigger on the campaign and was prudent to do so. George W. Bush was clearly on the downslope of popularity and it was painfully obvious that a Republican would have an uphill climb capturing the Presidency in 2008 — especially a Republican so tied to the Bush Administration’s agenda.

Instead of running on the inertia of ambition and running a failed campaign possibly ruining his chances at the presidency forever, Frist decided to put off the Presidency and the take time to get clean of the Bush stink and preserve his viability for the future. It was a smart decision and one few ambitious pols would have made.

If Frist has decided to eschew the Gubernatorial race in 2010, he has made a similarly astute decision. While coming back home and getting elected Governor would be superficially good image-wise there are other variables that need be considered.

One is the timing. It’s off.

A 2012 presidential race is out. To make that run, Frist would essentially have to step off the inaugural platform at Legislative Plaza in 2011 and start running for President. Not only would it look bad, he would have no record off accomplishment in the state to run on. Just a title. His true resume would still be heavily Washington and heavily Bush-related.

Now, it is possible that Barack Obama could be a disastrous President and leave an opening for a Republican in 2012. Possible, but unlikely. But even if a Republican was going to have a chance, a candidate who could be reasonably seen as a restorer of the Bush legacy would not be the way for the GOP to go.

So, if Frist were to win the 2010 governor’s race, he would be looking at at least a term and some change before the 2016 race to succeed Obama starting getting dialed up. This, once again, brings us back to the state of the State and how feasible it will be for a Republican Governor to come out of a first term in 2014 smelling like a rose.

We have a poor economy that is not looking to recover anytime soon and a state budget with a revenue problem. Drastic spending cuts will hurt and tax increases will meet with blank stares in the new Republican General Assembly.

Now, if I were Frist I would look at this landscape and let the field of Haslam, Wamp and Gibbons fight it out for whomever the Democrats nominate to take the fall.

To follow the relative successful reign of Phil Bredesen with the economy in the shape that it is will be a daunting task. Frist is still a young man and there are other ways to get free of the yoke of the Bush legacy. That’s, of course, assuming Frist has the Presidential bug that bad anymore anyway.

Frist made a smart decision in 2006 backing away from a run for President. If this report is true, he has made another one — not just for himself but for the state of Tennessee. Among the candidates for Governor, all really want to be Governor for its own sake and at least one may even have the capacity to govern the state through what will be a difficult time.

Again, assuming the report is accurate, Frist has done a good thing in clearing a path.

UPDATE: The official Frist statement bowing out of the race.

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Jackson Baker
10,000 Monkeys and a Camera

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Tags: 2010, 2010 Governor's race, 2010 Gubernatorial Election, Bill Frist, Bill Gibbons, Bill Haslam, Governor Of Tennessee, Zach Wamp