Bredesen Goes To Washington And Your World And Mine Ain’t Gonna Be The Same
Posted on February 17, 2009 at 5:37 pmWhile Phil Bredesen may have succeeded in deflecting the spotlight that shown on him so brightly in the days after Tom Daschle removed himself from consideration for the position of Health and Human Services Secretary, the truth of the matter is that Tennessee still stands the very real possibility of losing its governor before his term ends.
Bredesen has been somewhat subtle about it but for those who can read between the lines it is quite clear Phil Bredesen would jump at the chance to serve the Obama Administration in Washington as either Secretary of Commerce or Health and Human Services.
Bredesen, as he has proved time and time again, is not a party loyalist. He routinely criticized Barack Obama during the Presidential campaign and, by praising a man who decided to eschew a Senate race against Lamar Alexander, he essentially endorsed the Republican in that race.
Despite running two victorious statewide campaigns, the second time carrying all 95 counties, Phil Bredesen has not succeeded in building a strong Democratic Party in Tennessee. His political success story is a personal one. His success and his defeats are largely apart from the party.
So, Phil Bredesen’s party, to the extent you can even call it “his”, is in shambles. Democrats have lost the state Senate. They are hanging on to limited power in the House by the thread of a moderate Republican betrayer. And, just recently, have turned over their actual party apparatus to a man who seems to lack establishment support and largely relies on volunteers to run the day to day operations of the party (to the extent that there are any).
Turning over the executive residence to the Republican in this economy may end up giving the Party some increased advantage in 2010 but largely, whether Bredesen stays or goes, the Democratic Party will remain in essentially the same predicament it finds itself now.
What a Bredesen departure would affect is not the Democratic Party but the Republican Party. Point of fact, an early Bredesen departure would throw a big bad grenade into a smoldering intraparty civil war.
Wamp partisans (as well as Gibbons) can say what they like but, right now, the Republican nomination for governor is Haslam’s to lose. Yes, some movement conservatives and evangelicals don’t like him and his past positions on guns may be a bit scary to the Second Amendment crowd. But Haslam has two very powerful things: money and a well-oiled political machine.
Zach Wamp may be a Congressman but he has little money and no power base from which to mount a campaign. He will run a credible race, just like Ed Bryant did in 2002 against Lamar but ultimately he will lose.
The only candidate who would even have half a shot at taking down Haslam is Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey. Now, he doesn’t have the kind of personal wealth that Haslam does but he knows the state in way that Wamp doesn’t and most importantly, he knows the legislature — and the lobbyists who frequent it.
True, Ramsey can’t raise funds while the legislature is in session, but, just as soon as it’s out, he’s got a lot of people who are gonna want to give. After all, the man is the Lieutenant Governor. He’s gonna have people who want to be on his good side, no matter what he decides to do.
Of course, it would be difficult for Ramsey to defeat Haslam under present conditions — especially with Wamp in the race. Not impossible, but difficult. After all, Halam is backed with his big money and what is essentially Lamar Alexander’s political machine. That combination hasn’t lost many elections in Tennessee (see Bob Corker).
However, if Phil Bredesen were to leave for Washington. Lt. Gov. Ramsey would ascend to the governorship. Now, many folks talk about this as though its an unparalleled good for Republicans, and it is in many respects. However, Ron Ramsey as the incumbent governor running in 2010 could also very well ignite a serious intramural battle within the GOP.
If Bredesen does leave, Haslam will be faced with a choice: withdraw, pack up the machine he has put in motion to capture the executive residence and go home or continue on with the campaign and challenge a now incumbent Republican governor. Because, while Ramsey may be on the fence about running for governor, once he is governor, he doesn’t have a choice. The day Bredesen leaves is the day Ramsey stars his campaign to keep that office.
Might Haslam just drop out at that point? I suppose its possible but, like I said, the Howard Baker wing of the party doesn’t tend to lose primaries and while Ron Ramsey is not exactly a fire-breathing movement conservative ideologue he is close enough.
A Ramsey/Haslam primary with Ramsey as the incumbent would be the GOP primary to end all GOP primaries. Incumbents don’t usually lose but then again neither do millionaires with experienced political machines behind them either.
Haslam, who he is and what he represents, irks certain elements of the GOP. The new ideologues, the evangelicals, the gun nuts — they all are very suspicious of him. But without a little something extra they are powerless to stop him.
Ramsey in the race as an incumbent changes the game. With a Gov. Ramsey, the Right would have a credible candidate who could actually win a statewide primary.
It would be an epic struggle and, were it to take place, the result would likely settle more than a few intramural conflicts in the GOP once and for all.
Whether as member of either faction or as an observer, you have to be rooting for that.
Comments
15 Responses to “Bredesen Goes To Washington And Your World And Mine Ain’t Gonna Be The Same”
Good analysis.
How does one blame legislative losses on Bredesen? He showed them the moderate path to success, time after time. Then, particularly in the House, they rejected it time after time under the leadership of Garry Odom. What do they say? You can lead a mangy horse to water but you can’t make him drink. If I were Bredesen and I had the chance, I’d say good riddance to Odom and his ingrates. Let them wallow in their sophomoric politics. It’s not even partisan. It’s just petty.
Good analysis, but way harsh about the Dem party and our organization. Never count out the power of volunteers, as they are dedicated to the cause and free.
Take our governor. Please. Ramsey or Norris, let’s go.
Ba-dum-bum. She’ll be here all week, please tip your server!
Actually, Ramsey might be easier to beat than a monied-up Haslam, so go right ahead!
Fantastic analysis, but Bredesen isn’t going anywhere…
Look, our state is in a mess, and fighting about who got us in the ditch ain’t gonna get us out of it. What we need is strong leadership, and the Dems have proven time and again they will not follow Bredesen. Maybe with Ramsey as Governor he can whip the Republicans in enough shape to do the hard and messy work that needs to be done. Otherwise, we’re all toast.
[...] WHAT A BREDESEN CABINET APPOINTMENT would do to the Tennessee GOP. [...]
I do not see Governor Bredesen fitting into an Obama administration. Phil has worked for a living and tends to have a practical thought process. I do not think the guys up there want anyone with real world experience in their camp. It would cause friction if reality reared it’s ugly head to scare away their lofty goals. In terms of healt care “reform” those guys want the government to insure everyone and Phil would not be on board for that.
He has had a real job.
Trey
Ramsey has lost alot of his base support in Northeast Tennessee over this William’s issue. He wouldn’t be the contender he once was without that base. Alot of support for Haslam up here.
Just make sure you ask Gibbons why possessing a gun is worse than raping or murdering before you give him your vote. I’ll take Marsha Blackburn please.
Good stuff except for the silly comment by Trey. There are more than a few people in Obama’s administration with the “real world experience” you speak of just as there have been in previous administrations. You’ve obviously failed to look at the full resumes of his staff and cabinet, which are readily available online. They’re not bothered by his or anyone’s pragmatism. But as AK noted, he’s been a vocal critic of Obama so much in the past it might be hard to reconcile with him now. He might make a decent Commerce secretary, but HHS? My bet is that’s really doubtful.
Idahoser,
What’s the deal with Gibbons and his stance on guns? I don’t know much about him.
First off yes TennCare needed some major work, and Bredesen did promise to fix TennCare during his campaign. There were many ways he could have accomplished the goal of fixing TennCare such as multi state medication buy in, other RX cost controls, and many other ways to bring the program under control. Which would have fixed the budget “bleeding.”
Secondly, Bredesen is a business man, and dealt with this as capitalists do, make major cuts to control the bottom line. Then add back some items once you build up a surplus from the cuts. Then as you add stuff back you convince people you are doing them good because you are bringing them this inferior product (compared to the original). And you do all this without looking to closely, because you don’t want to see the affects on individuals.
Finally, and most importantly, Bredesen ALWAYS intended to destroy TennCare. Some folks have seen his strategic plan, where he laid out that he was out to dismantle TennCare. The playbook, was full of plans to disrupt or stop any legislative efforts to fix TennCare.
These are just a small number of reasons why many of use are working to organize the voices of many that oppose Bredesen being named as Secretary of HHS.
You sound like you work for the Knoxville News Sentinel the way you saying things like it’s Haslam’s race to lose! Have you ever seen the man speak?? He has a hard time articulating basic points and can’t explain why he wants to be governor. Check out his instapundit interview, he gets Medicare and Medicaid confused…
Hedge your bets a little bit because Haslam is nothing like Lamar Alexander and Wamp is nothing like Ed Bryant. That was an awful comparison.
And how can you say that Wamp has no base when he just got 70% of the vote in the third Congressional district?? Sounds like strong base to me.