More Candidates, More Calculations

By Kleinheider Posted on January 9, 2009 at 8:20 am

Greg Johnson breaks down the map in the Republican race for Governor:

The second theme is geography. With Wamp from Chattanooga, Haslam from Knoxville and Ramsey — should he get in — from the Tri-Cities, as Tom Humphrey pointed out in the News Sentinel earlier this week, that trio could split the Republican stronghold of East Tennessee. That would seem to give the advantage to Gibbons.

But a quick analysis of results from the 2006 U.S. Senate race — a hotly contested run for an open seat – showed that only 201,629 West Tennesseans voted for the Republican Bob Corker. Corker got 393,120 votes in East Tennessee and 335,151 in Middle Tennessee. Even if Haslam, Wamp and Ramsey split East Tennessee, there just aren’t enough Republican voters in West Tennessee to make Gibbons the favorite.

Middle Tennessee could be critical. Blackburn’s entry in the race could knock everybody off stride since her district includes parts of both Middle and West Tennessee. Ramsey’s high profile as lieutenant governor and the Nashville media’s intense coverage of state doings might help him in Middle Tennessee.

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