Is John McCain In Trouble In Arizona?

By Kleinheider Posted on December 3, 2008 at 3:01 pm

It depends:

In 2007, when Mr McCain was taking the lead on immigration reform, his favourability numbers among Republicans plunged. At low points, he was behind Mitt Romney in polling for the state’s presidential primary. But Mr McCain came back to win the state with 47% of the vote on Super Tuesday. It was tantalisingly under 50%, giving the budding Hayworthians hope that they can beat him.

But Mr McCain’s fate is in his own hands, not theirs. In 2004, conservative groups like the Club for Growth thought about challenging Mr McCain, then famous for his heterodoxy on taxes, global warming and immigration. But Mr McCain swung right and campaigned for President Bush, calming the waters, and conservatives made Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania their target. If he is successfully courted by President Obama and becomes a swing vote for Democratic bills, expect the Hayworthians to roil again. Expect that to happen at double-speed if an immigration bill comes up in 2009 or 2010.

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