Real Clearly Over

16 Responses to “Real Clearly Over”

1. bridgett writes
   October 9th, 2008 3:07 pm

   I’ll put a dollar on Obama in VA — NC, not so much. However, even if Obama loses, he wins. McCain’s campaign has to win VA and so will have to spend heavily to make up what even Rasmussen reports is a growing lead for Obama. A dollar spent in VA is a dollar that he can’t spend in Florida. He’s running out of time and ways to win.

2. Kleinheider writes
   October 9th, 2008 3:10 pm

   Indeed. I’m not saying McCain will win the election. He just won’t lose VA and NC.

3. Stephen writes
   October 9th, 2008 3:15 pm

   Maybe you’re right. I, too, am having a hard time believing VA will turn blue after more than 40 years of voting Republican in Presidential elections. However, it just might happen. It will certainly make me happy if it does.

   The most recent polls show Obama not only leading statewide but in every section of the state - northern, central, southside - and tied with McCain in the Appalachian southwestern area. McCain doesn’t lead in any of the historic regions of the Old Dominion. The times they are a-changin’.

4. Bobby Blevins writes
   October 9th, 2008 3:21 pm

   “I smell some Bradley Effect”? I wonder if you’re smellng some GOP wishful thinking.

5. bridgett writes
   October 9th, 2008 3:21 pm

   I’e got some friends field organizing for Obama in SW VA and they believe that a tie there (or even coming within 3 points) will mean a win for Obama overall. Even factoring out the zombie-like fatigue and delusional thinking that comes with holding such a position in mid-October (been there, done that), I think that VA is already gone, baby, gone. I’ll let you know for sure when I see next week’s line.

6. Kleinheider writes
   October 9th, 2008 3:23 pm

   “I smell some Bradley Effect”? I wonder if you’re smellng some GOP wishful thinking.

   Again, I didn’t say McCain was gonna win the election. I said he would win Virginia and North Carolina.

7. Sean Braisted writes
   October 9th, 2008 3:28 pm

   ACK,

   If you look at the polls during the Primary, Obama outperformed his in Virginia and North Carolina. He got nearly all of the undecideds and Hillary performed as the polling indicated.

   Considering new polling which indicates Obama doing better in West Virginia and Pennsylvania, I think you are seeing his deficits in Appalachia deteriorate, and Sarah Palin plays better to Suburban Christians than to rural Southerners.

8. Sean Braisted writes
   October 9th, 2008 3:34 pm

   Also, it should be noted, that large states can change in a fairly dramatic fashion. Between 1952 and 1988 California only went Democratic once, in 1964. But since 1992, it has become a Democratic stronghold.

9. Bobby Blevins writes
   October 9th, 2008 3:35 pm

   You need to read your words and mine again. I wasn’t talking about national results. I was confining myself to your “out of thin air” analysis about North Carolina and Virginia. I don’t know who wins those states but how can you “smell some Bradley Effect” so far?

10. bridgett writes
    October 9th, 2008 3:36 pm

    PPP has Obama up by 8%, mostly due to his gains among white voters. With only 6% reported as undecided, I really think “that one” has won this one. North Carolina’s a different matter.

    Has anyone examined the methodology of the ARG poll that puts Obama up by 8% in WV? I don’t believe that for a minute — I just want to know how they are doing the stats.

11. Jim Voorhies writes
    October 9th, 2008 4:21 pm

    Looked at a news site this afternoon, AC? Given how much the economy’s changed in the last three weeks, there’s even more time between now and the election. You think the Dow can hit 6,000 by then?

12. UT POLI PROF writes
    October 9th, 2008 5:35 pm

    Obama will win Virginia, and come close or win NC, both of those states had a little bit of intrigue early in Election Night 2000 and have changed demographically since then. The Research Triangle, Northern Virginia–are some of the smartest areas of the country and they are rejecting what Sarah Palin is selling as warmed over W. Bush leftovers with even less intelligence. I agree with the SWVA report, the SurveyUsa poll showed a tied in Western Virginia. No Republican can win the state without carrying Western Virginia by 12-15 points. Give up on the Bradley Effect–the DOW EFFECT crushes it to a racist pulp.

13. LeftWingCracker writes
    October 9th, 2008 6:16 pm

    I agree with Bridgett about WFV, there’s no way my guy is leading there.

    Unless, of course, the Ralph Stanley ad is helping Obama more than I thought…

14. gemini writes
    October 9th, 2008 7:34 pm

    Unless there is some show-changing event in the next three weeks, I think Obama will carry Virginia. NC will be close, but McCain will hold on.

    But as the poster says, the fact that Obama can play there hurts McCain, even if McCain eventually wins.

15. Will writes
    October 9th, 2008 10:20 pm

    Sad that the GOP’s last great hope is that Americans are secretly racist and therefore lying to pollsters.

16. The Battle for the Old Dominion writes
    October 12th, 2008 3:24 pm

    [...] 6.3 (with the comparison of Bush winning by 8.1 and 8.2 in 2000 and 2004, respectively), to which Kleinheider had this to say: “I realize that northern Virginia is growing and different but I am just not [...]