Fear Of A Black Planet

11 Responses to “Fear Of A Black Planet”

1. Sean Braisted writes
   October 1st, 2008 9:18 am

   Could these voters be motivated by the “leave me alone” Western-style conservatism of Sarah Palin?

   How did we come to this conclusion? What evidence is there that she deviates much at all from the Bush style Republicanism?

2. Kleinheider writes
   October 1st, 2008 9:27 am

   Well, there’s her kind words for Ron Paul, her donning of Buchanan flair in ‘96, her husband’s associations with a secessionist party as exhibits.

   Mostly, however, it is her image as a gun-toting, baby-birthin’ woman from one of the last parts of the country that one could call “pioneering” which appeals to the conservative imagination.

   Politics is about identity. Appalachians can identify with the above far more than they can identify with an African American pol from Chicago named Barack Obama. It’s that simple.

3. Sean Braisted writes
   October 1st, 2008 9:42 am

   I think McCain, who comes from a Scots-Irish background, who has served in the military with some level of distinction, is probably more attractive to the Appalachian folks than a female Governor of a state thousands of miles away, who talks with a Canadian accent.

   I agree completely that Obama probably isn’t going to be winning Appalachian areas (especially in Tennessee), but I doubt very much that Palin is the deciding factor in this.

4. Kleinheider writes
   October 1st, 2008 11:14 am

   Oh, indeed. McCain is the war hero, the great white father. You asked about Palin.

   Do not underestimate her appeal to your average non-liberal, non-cosmopolitan white man or woman.

   She may have a weird accent but more than any politician in recent memory on the national stage she is a “real person.”

   She had not, at the moment of her nomination, joined the elite of this country, neither its conservative nor liberal wing.

   She is in the process of joining it now and how she handles that will determine her future relevance.

   However, for now, she has a cultural bond with many white folks who voted for people like Reagan, Clinton and Perot. She has the ability to expand her ticket’s turnout just as Obama does. This should not be discounted.

   She can make all the gaffes she wants. The media will cover it and the junkies will eat it up.

   But for the casual voter all that matters is that cultural bond. That bond still remains.

5. gandalfus a birch iv writes
   October 1st, 2008 11:22 am

   I tend to doubt that Obama will take East Tennessee, however it is only necessary that Obama beat expectations in the area. High turnout in Memphis, Nashville and Chatanooga (of new registrants and young “cell phone only” voters especially) plus, oh the same margin Clinton got in 96 could mean a closer than expected TN outcome.

   One thing that generally helps Republicans in Knoxville is the one or two Republican Black preachers. I turned them for Clinton in 96 and Knoxville was much closer as a result. With Obama in the race, they may not need my urging. There are a few Black Republicans who are jumping ship that I know of this cycle. Must be more.

6. Sean Braisted writes
   October 1st, 2008 11:41 am

   ACK,

   We’ll see I suppose, but the evidence is not reflected in polling data from the important states like North Carolina or Virginia where her numbers have slipped fairly dramatically to be on par, or lower than, John McCain’s.

   People want to see “real folk” work their way up from nothing to achieve greatness, ala Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, not have it handed to them on a silver platter when they are so glaringly unqualified.

   I’m sure there are many people who will love Sarah Palin no matter what she says or does; just as there remains a group of 25% of Americans who despite all evidence to the contrary, still think Bush does a good job because he is in constant contact with the Lord almighty.

7. Kleinheider writes
   October 1st, 2008 11:56 am

   People want to see “real folk” work their way up from nothing to achieve greatness, ala Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, not have it handed to them on a silver platter when they are so glaringly unqualified.

   Maybe. Which is why many whites will not vote for Barack Obama because, rightly or wrongly, they believe he has moved up too high, too quickly.

   The fact that these voters believe Obama’s rise is a symptom of an affirmative action culture makes his rise even more repugnant to them.

   Sarah Palin was absolutely elevated because she was a woman and an evangelical. No weight was given to qualifications. True.

   However, Palin’s artificial rise is not an affront to many whites because, although she benefited from a form of affirmative action, she holds to (modified) traditional roles for women.

   Obama’s affirmative action rise, however, will be connected in the minds of many whites to examples of affirmative action they have seen affect their friends, family and themselves.

   Not saying any of this is right, I’m just saying you have to consider race, culture and identity in this race.

   This race should be an utter and complete landslide for the Democrat. The fact that it is even remotely close is a testament to this.

8. Sean Braisted writes
   October 1st, 2008 12:30 pm

   ACK,

   True, but those whites who think Obama got to where he is because of Affirmative Action weren’t going to vote for him whether McCain chose Huckabee, Romney or Lieberman; so while her presence might not turn them off, I don’t think she necessarily gives him the added benefit so many seem to think she does.

9. Kleinheider writes
   October 1st, 2008 12:42 pm

   those whites who think Obama got to where he is because of Affirmative Action weren’t going to vote for him whether McCain chose Huckabee, Romney or Lieberman

   Oh, that’s not true. It’s not just about flipping the other side’s vote or even swing voters. It is about turning people out.

   Indeed, the folks I am talking about were probably never gonna vote Obama. But they weren’t gonna vote McCain either, that’s the thing.

   Huckabee might have had a somewhat similar effect but Palin brings some obvious qualities that Huckabee does not. Huckabee hits the Jesus note and strikes a populist pose but for voter appeal you can’t beat Palin.

   She is right-wing without scaring people.

   Romney? Please. Evangelicals would have just said the hell with it. McCain plus “the heretic” = staying home.

   Same with Lieberman. Many in the conservative base would have sat on their hands.

   Palin is about bringing voters out who may not have otherwise came. She flips some voters for different reasons, but very few.

   Palin is a GOTV vehicle — and an effective one, if used properly. McCain looks to be screwing that up, however.

10. gemini writes
    October 1st, 2008 1:10 pm

    Palin scares me. I guess I’m not typical.

    And I live in Knoxville, which I fully expect to go for Obama. Knox County will be another story.

11. Sean Braisted writes
    October 1st, 2008 1:22 pm

    In terms of turning out the base, I think Sarah Palin’s more significant advantage will be among middle-class white suburbanite males. Working, hard working Americans, white Americans will more likely be attracted to McCain’s sense of patriotism, and be turned off by Obama’s name/pastor/intellect/etc…

    But here is the reason I think the Appalachians aren’t flocking to Sarah America; just look at the polls. Obama has improved significantly in Virginia and North Carolina over the past few weeks; his numbers have improved in Pennsylvania and Ohio as well. If Palin helped anywhere it might be in places like Montana that were looking contentious for a while.

    The problem with a base strategy is that the Republicans simply don’t have much of a base left to turn out. McCain’s pathway to victory was winning significantly among the older Americans who were unsure of Obama’s level of experience. By picking Palin, he has undercut this meme, and as a result you’ve seen Florida get closer, if not a lean Obama state.

    I guess, the question remains, which states does McCain pick up from the Palin pick? He hasn’t made significant inroads into any Obama leaning states, and has lost ground in many of the Bush states that he had been leaning in. How does Sarah Palin relaunch herself to significantly change the trajectory of this campaign? I just don’t see it, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.