McCain Is Northern Virginia
By Kleinheider Posted on July 18, 2008 at 4:30 pmKatherine Miller has serious doubts about the ability of Barack Obama to pull off a general election victory in November:
People argue the overwhelming power of the Northern Virginia vote; while it will certainly take some hardy pushing of the issue, no candidate is more closely aligned with the tone and substance of Northern Virginia than John McCain — look at the successes of Tom Davis and Frank Wolf — moderate Republicans. Beyond that, gun rights and the huge NRA lobby in Virginia can carry much of the state. The Commonwealth is ours to lose, so don’t let Kaine and Webb fool you.
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No. McCain WAS Northern Virginia as recently as 2000. But Northern Virginia has changed in the last several years. It is much more ethnically diverse than in the past. And it has soured on the Republican Party as a whole as part of a regional muscle-flexing. Note that the number of Assembly and Senate members from NOVA has dwindled to about three.
Virginia will be tough for Obama. But every poll has it very close. And Obama has a strong organization in the state.
Virginia is a state that Obama has opened 20 field offices in, including many in small towns like Bristol and Castlewood. That infrastructure is greater than many Virginia gubernatorial candidates put in, and with Obama having more offices than McCain has permanent staff–that is a huge advantage. The moderate Republicans are fading away in NoVa and unlike in TN–the trend is solidly towards the Democrats.