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Declaring Defeat From Two Years Out

By Kleinheider Posted on June 25, 2008 at 10:11 am

The Brainstem doesn’t seem all that optimistic about the chances of the Democratic Party holding on to the Governor’s mansion in 2010:

That leaves Kim McMillan and Lincoln Davis as the two most likely contenders for the nomination, with an outside chance of Harold Ford Jr. (and a really outside chance of Tim McGraw) stepping in. If it does remain McMillan and Davis, there is likely going to be a serious disparity between the Republican and Democratic candidates in terms of finances, especially if Bill Frist is the GOP nominee.

Democrats are likely to be at a financial disadvantage regardless of what Bill Frist decides to do. For if the former Senator takes a pass it is unlikely that Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam will. In fact both men seem to running for the seat and, despite protestations to the contrary, there could very well be a primary between the two men.

That scenario would be the best scenario that the Democratic party could hope for at this point. Two extremely wealthy Republican beating each other to death with their extravagant millions might make the homespun folksiness of Lincoln Davis downright refreshing.

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6 Responses to “Declaring Defeat From Two Years Out”

  1. Sean Braisted writes
    June 25th, 2008 10:45 am

    But if two relative moderates jump in, Marsha Blackburn could try to get into the mix by getting the radical wingnut vote and the female Republicans. If she’s the nominee, she wouldn’t have as much scratch.

  2. Mickey writes
    June 25th, 2008 11:13 am

    Marsha Blackburn is a moderate!

  3. Kleinheider writes
    June 25th, 2008 11:13 am

    But if two relative moderates jump in, Marsha Blackburn could try to get into the mix

    Interesting take but in a race against Haslam, Frist likely jettisons his moderate tendencies and becomes the ideological conservative candidate.

    A Haslam/Frist primary makes Blackburn a less likely candidate not a more likely one, in my opinion. Frist, in this scenario, would use his money to suck most of the air out of any vacuum on the Right leaving Blackburn little to work with.

  4. Sean Braisted writes
    June 25th, 2008 11:30 am

    Mickey, moderate by your standards, not by the modern American political landscape.

    Kleinheider, perhaps you are right, and I certainly think she would be outspent…but I look to Russ Feingold’s first primary victory over a decade ago as an example of where a person with less money was able to defeat a couple well healed opponents.

    I think a lot of the base feels more strongly about Marsha Blackburn than they do about Bill Frist or Haslam.

  5. Mickey writes
    June 25th, 2008 12:18 pm

    Sean, you mean by your standards, you are not the mouth piece for the Mordern American Political Landscape.

  6. Sean Braisted writes
    June 25th, 2008 12:47 pm

    I don’t pretend to be, but any objective observer would place Marsha Blackburn at towards the right on the political spectrum.

    Maybe in 19th century politics she’d be a “moderate” or even “liberal,” but in today’s world, she’s a rightie.

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