The Ever Present Bradley Effect

By Kleinheider Posted on May 16, 2008 at 4:47 pm

From the Politico:

“We know that biracial elections have been difficult for pollsters,” says Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center. “Race continues to be an issue for Obama, and to the extent race is an issue, race will be an issue in polling.”

The phenomenon, known in the trade as “social desirability bias,” draws its name from Tom Bradley, the former black mayor of Los Angeles who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election despite leading in final day pre-election polls. It resurfaced in the 1989 Virginia governor’s election when L. Douglas Wilder, an African-American, barely squeaked by his Republican opponent despite polling that reflected a commanding double-digit lead for Wilder heading into Election Day.

Some observers saw evidence of the Bradley effect right out of the gate this year in New Hampshire. While surveys were close to the mark on the Republican side, polls for the Democratic primary showed Obama with a steady lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton in a contest he eventually lost 39 percent to 36 percent. The average margin of polls taken up until a day before the election projected an 8-point Obama lead.

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